后金融危机时期油轮运价与原油期货价格的关系研究

Research on the Relationship Between the Tanker Freight and the Future Price of Crude Oil in the Post Financial Crisis Period

本文针对后金融危机时期油轮运价与原油期货价格之间的关系进行了考察,结果表明:在经济波动幅度较大的第一阶段,油轮运价与原油期货价格之间不存在长期均衡关系,二者价格主要受投机等偶然因素的影响;在经济平稳的第二阶段,二者价格波动存在长期均衡关系,原油期货价格是油轮运价波动的因素之一。

This paper studies the relationship between tanker freight rates and crude oil futures price in the post financial crisis period. The conclusion show that： In the first stage of larger economic fluctuations the long-term equilibrium relationship does not exist between tanker freight and crude oil futures price, the two price is mainly affected by speculative causal factors;Conversely, in the second stage of steady economic,crude oil futures prices and tanker freight fluctuation exist the long-term equilibrium relationship,the price of crude oil futures is one of the factors of tanker freight fluctuation.