油气管道坡面水毁风险评价中的不确定性因素分析

Analysis of Uncertain Factors in Flooding Damaging Risk Assessment of Oil and Gas Pipeline Slope

油气管道坡面水毁评价体系中涉及随机性与模糊性相综合表示的问题,从不确定性入手,简要说明了不确定性定义,不确定性在油气管道坡面水毁的一些表现。重点分析了人的因素的不确定性,评价准备阶段的不确定性,不确定性评价方法。在不确定性因素的基础上,从失效因素的认识和不确定性推理过程2个方面做出一些改进,并给出了权重云模型具体算法,解释了权重的不确定性对后续评价结果的影响。针对评价过程中的各种不确定性因素的特点,提出了相应的规避措施。

The flooding damaging evaluation system of oil and gas pipeline slope involves randomness and fuzziness, so the definition of the uncertainty of the flooding damaging of oil and gas pipeline slope and the reflections of the uncertainty are described. The human uncertainties, the uncertainties in the evaluation preparation phase and the uncertainties of evaluation method are emphatically analyzed. Based on this, some improvements are made from the understanding of failure factors and the reasoning of uncertainty, and the specific algorithm of weight cloud model is presented. The influences of the uncertainty of the weights on the subsequent evaluation results are explained. According to the characteristics of the various uncertainties in the evaluation process, the corresponding avoidance measures are proposed.