日本消费税改革的经济效应探析

The Economic Effects of Japan's Consumption Tax Reform

日本的消费税从无到有已经历了三次增税改革,旨在保障不断增加的社会养老支出,健全财政,促进经济增长。根据前两次消费税改革经济效应的历史检验可以看出,消费税增税虽然在短期内发挥了刺激消费、拉动经济增长的积极效果,但中长期来看反而导致消费进一步低迷、经济全面下滑、财政负担更加严重的后果。由于增税的根本原因为日本政治、经济、财政及社会深层结构性矛盾,因此安倍政府实施的消费税增税改革也将难以达到遏制通缩、摆脱财政困境、拉动经济增长的目标。加快经济结构改革,提高劳动生产率,采取差异化战略,才能有效提高消费税增税的经济效应,有利于实现财政健全化和经济可持续发展的目标。

There have been three times of reform of Japan＇ s consumption tax, in order to guarantee the increasing social pension expenditures and promote economic growth; however, according to the economic effect of the first two consumption tax reforms, it can be seen that the previous reforms of Japan＇s consumption tax, while having played a positive role of stimulating consumption and economic growth in the short term, have also imposed negative impact on the economy in the long term by weakening the recovery of consumption and growth as well as adding the financial burden. Since the tax increase is due to solve the problems relating to structural contradiction of Japanese politics, economy, finance and society, it can be predicted that the consumption tax reform implemented by the Abe adminstration can not achieve the goal of curbing deflation, shaking off financial dilemma and stimulating economic growth. To improve the economic effect of comsumption tax reform and build sound finance with sustainable growth, measures should be taken to accelerate economic structural reform, improve labor productivity and adopt differentation strategies.