不同情景下长江口滩涂湿地2020年景观演变预测

Landscape Prediction of Yangtze Estuarine Wetlands in 2020 Under Different Scenarios

为了解长江口典型滩涂湿地景观格局演变过程,根据1980—2010年长江口滩涂湿地演变规律,采用土地利用动态变化模型Dyna-CLUE模型和CA模型预测2020年长江口3处典型滩涂湿地崇明东滩、南汇边滩以及九段沙在生态保护、现行趋势和围垦加剧3种不同情景下的景观演变。结果表明:到2020年,在生态保护情景、现行趋势情景和围垦加剧情景下,堤外滩涂湿地总面积分别增长56、44 km2以及减少7 km2,其中芦苇(Phragmites australis)、互花米草(Spartina alterniflora)和海三棱藨草(Scirpus mariqueter)群落面积比由2010年的36∶38∶26分别变化为2020年的46∶34∶20、38∶38∶24和38∶37∶25。对于崇明东滩、南汇边滩和九段沙而言,生态保护情景下滩涂湿地面积分别增加7、43和6 km2,而现行趋势情景和围垦加剧情景下,滩涂湿地面积呈现不断减少的趋势。

Based on the analysis of classified remote sensing images of the Yangtze Estuarine wetlands of 1980- 2010,landscapes of the wetlands（ Chongming Dongtan,Nanhui Biantan and Jiuduansha） in 2020 under three different scenarios（ ecological protection,current trend and intensified reclamation） were predicted using the Dyna-CLUE and CA models.Results show that by 2020,the total area of the wetlands outside the dike will have increased by 56 and 44 km2,and decreased by 7 km2,respectively,under the three different scenarios. The area ratios of Phragmites/Spartina/Scirpus will have changed from 36 ∶ 38 ∶ 26 to 46 ∶ 34 ∶ 20,38 ∶ 38 ∶ 24 and 38 ∶ 37 ∶ 25,respectively,by 2020. Under the scenario of ecological protection, the area of the estuarine wetlands in Chongming Dongtan, Nanhui Biantan and Jiuduansha will have increased by 7,43 and 6 km2,respectively. Conversely,under the scenario of current trend or intensified reclamation,the area of estuarine wetlands will have been on a declining trend. The results of this study can provide some reference for the proper utilization and protection of the Yangtze Estuarine wetlands.