新常态下的中国宏观经济形势分析与展望

China's Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast in the Context of The New Normal

在经济增长速度换挡期、结构调整阵痛期和前期刺激政策消化期"三期叠加"的宏观背景下,预计我国经济增长的下行压力进一步增大,宏观经济将面临三大风险和六大挑战。在中央提出"新常态"的判断后,我国将不再片面追求经济增长速度,在设定经济发展目标时,将进一步淡化经济增长速度,换之以弹性目标和发展区间进行管理,采取预调、微调等宏观调控手段予以应对。未来我国宏观经济政策的重点和难点就在于如何实现稳增长与促改革、调结构之间的平衡,其政策要点在于:短期内通过稳增长为深化改革和结构调整打造稳定的宏观经济环境;长期内围绕促进发展这一根本推进重大改革,激发企业活力。

In the background of three overlay stage of economic growth speed shifting period, structural adjustment suffering period and the stimu- lus policy digesting period, it is expected that the pressure of the GDP growth rate decline will increase greatly and the macro-economy will face three major risks and six major challenges in the future. After the new normal theory was proposed by the Central Committee of the Chinese Com- munist Party, China will no longer focus only on the economie growth, When setting up goals of economic development, the concept of speed will be weakened. Instead, the economic development will be managed through elastic targets and development range management. At the same time, macro-control methods as pre-adjust and micro-adjust will be employed. In future, the key and the difficult point of China＇s macroeconomic policy would exist in how we strike the balance among stable economic growth, reform advancing and structure adjustment. The critical point to the poli- cy is that： in the short term, for reform advancing and structure adjustment, a stable macroeconomic environment should be maintained through steady economic growth, and in the long run, taking promoting development as our aim, further reform should be achieved and the vitality of en- terprises should be excited.