基于灰箱模型的中国城市内涝弹性评价

Evaluation on urban local flood resilience in China based on Gray Box Model

基于城市内涝弹性的概念和内涵,建立了灰箱模型,借助主成分分析法构建了包括抵御能力、恢复能力和适应能力三个维度的城市内涝弹性评价体系,对全国238个地级及以上城市进行了内涝弹性评价,运用相关性分析方法对评价结果进行了分析。结果表明:在2008-2009年期间,238个城市中仅有29个城市未发生内涝;内涝弹性强、弱的城市呈集群分布,珠三角、长三角城市群城市内涝弹性较强,京津冀城市群、关中城市群内涝弹性较弱;城市内涝弹性与城市社会经济发展水平呈显著负相关关系,城市立交桥区域是城市内涝高发区;建成区内的城市绿地系统并未有效改善城市内涝弹性;城市排水与防洪堤不但没有缓解城市内涝,还侵蚀了城市内涝弹性。

Based on the concept and connotation of ur- ban local flood resilience, this essay builds gray box model. The evaluation system including resistance, recovery and adaptation is constructed by using principal component analysis. The re- suits show that during the period of 2008 - 2009, only 29 cities have not been encountered by local flood. Cities with high resili- ence or low resilience present cluster patterns. Local flood resili- ence of cities located in Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta is strong, while resilience of cities located in Jing - jin - ji urban agglomeration and Guanzhong urban agglomeration is weak. According to the correlation analysis, urban local flood resilience is significantly negatively correlated with urban socio -economic level, and urban overpass areas are high incidence of local flood. However, urban green space in built - up area did not improve urban local flood resilience effectively. Further- more, urban drainage system and levees not only did not allevi- ate urban local flood but also eroded urban local flood resilience.