基于Hermite插值法的GM(1,1)模型在软基地表沉降预测中的应用

Application of GM(1,1) model based on Hermite interpolation method in prediction of soft foundation surface subsidence

地表沉降量作为判定地基卸载时间的直接技术指标,其计算的准确性已成为各类工程技术人员面临的难题之一。为研究某软基施工过程中加固效果的动态变化情况,采用Hermite插值法将现场地表沉降实测数据转化为等时间间隔,并基于转化结果建立了GM(1,1)模型和对应的时间响应函数,以预测不同时间下的地表沉降量。分析计算结果表明:GM(1,1)模型的计算精度等级为1级,对不同时间下的地表沉降量能进行较好的预测;同时,为今后解决类似复杂沉降预测问题提供了借鉴和指导。

The surface subsidence is a direct index indicating in unloading time, and the calculation accuracy has become one of the difficulties faced by all kinds of engineers. To study the dynamic change of reinforcement effect with a soft foundation construction process, the measured data of surface subsidence has been converted to the same interval by hermite interpolation in this paper. Base on the conversion results, GM （ 1, 1 ） model and the corresponding function with time has been established to predict the surface settlement in different time. The results of analysis showed that the calculation accuracy by the GM（ 1, 1） prediction model is the first level, which could well predict the surface subsidence in different time, meanwhile, it would provide reference and guidance for solving the related complex settlement prediction problems in the future.