基于ISM和MICMAC模型的电网公司运营预警指标研究

Research on Forewarning Index System for Management of Grid Corporations Based on ISM and MICMAC Model

以电网公司运营预警为研究对象,运用解释结构模型对电网公司运营预警指标进行了分析并构建了指标的结构递阶有向图。通过该图可以对复杂的运营预警系统进行分层,从而直观地看到电网公司运营指标之间的层次和影响关系;运用交叉影响矩阵相乘分析法,建立驱动力-依赖性矩阵,将电网公司运营预警系统中的各因素分为独立、依赖、联动、自发4个集群,进而识别系统中各因素的驱动力和依赖性。通过分析得出:电网公司应该注意管理驱动力大的低层级因素,如售电量、购电量、业扩新增容量、综合线损率等;加强控制中间层级的因素,如售电收入、供电成本、输配电成本等;随时监测依赖性强的高层因素,如经济增加值、全员劳动生产率等。

The forewarning index system for management of grid corporations based on ISM and MICMAC is constructed to analyze the index and to build the hierarchical digraph of index. The complex forewarning system can be stratified based on the digraph to identify the level and interaction of the index. According to the driving force-dependent matrix based on MICMAC,the index of forewarning system can be divided into four cluster： independent, dependent, linkage and spontaneous. Furthermore, the system can identify the driver and dependent factors. By analyzing the result, the managers of the grid corporations should pay attention to the low-level factors with big driving force, such as electricity sales, the purchase of electricity, the industry expanding capacity and comprehensive line loss rate. At the same time, the managers also need to strengthen the control of the middle level factors, such as electricity revenue, power supply costs, transmission and distribution costs. At last, the managers should monitor the high-level factors with strong dependence, such as economic value added, labor productivity and so on at any time.