人类活动对鸭绿江下游水沙变化的影响

Influence of Human Activities on Changes of Runoff and Sediment Downstream Yalu River

基于鸭绿江荒沟站1958-2008年的实测径流量和输沙量数据,采用Mann-Kendall法对水沙变化的趋势进行检验,利用双累积曲线法对水沙变化进行阶段性划分,在此基础上研究人类活动对水沙变化的影响。研究结果表明：鸭绿江下游荒沟站的实测年径流量和输沙量变化均呈显著的下降趋势,且年径流量下降的趋势强于年输沙量下降的趋势;以1963年和1994年为转折点,将径流-输沙曲线分为3个时段：1958-1963年、1964-1994年、1995-2008年;自然因素是影响径流量减少的主因,人类活动影响较弱,平均为10%左右,但各时段影响不同;人类活动对年输沙量的阶段性影响增减不一,但总体是减沙为主,平均年减沙量约为0.81×10^6t。

The runoff and sediment load change trend downstream the Yalu River was studied with Mann - Kendall method according to the data actually measured at Huang Gou Station 1958 to 2008. The runoff and sedi- ment load change was divided into stages by double mass analysis, by which the influence of human activities on the change was discussed. It was found that the annual runoff and sediment runoff had been obviously declining, and the annual runoff declined more than the annual sediment runoff. With the years of 1963 and 1994 as turning points, the sediment and runoff curve can be divided into three stages： 1958 -1963, 1964 -1994 and 1995 - 2008. Natural factors are the main reasons causing the decrease of runoff. Differently in the stages, human activities have relatively less influence on the runoff with an average percentage of about 10%. Generally, human activi- ties decrease the annual sediment runoff with an average amount of about 0.81 × 10^6 t per year.