“魔警”徐步高案中不确定事项的分析

Uncertainty and the Case of Police Constable ‘Tiger’ Tsui Po-ko

香港警察之间发生的罕见枪击案导致两名警察丧命,引起了媒体的广泛关注,探究原因。应香港警方的请求,作者帮助警方评析此案的侦查。死因裁判调查让此前的两起枪击杀人案也迎刃而解。借助此桩非同寻常的案件,本文探究了如何通过减少不确定性来弥补法益分析和行为学分析的缺陷。动机和嫌犯的精神健康的不确定导致精神病学、心理学和行为学分析以及犯罪学的解释存在差异。本文比较了上述学科中的专家意见对不确定事项的解读,认为明确识别不确定事项是实施侦查的路径。

A rare open fire event in Hong Kong between police officers resulted in the death of two constables and sparked intense media interest about what caused the incident. At the request of the Hong Kong Police the author helped review the investigation of this intra-police homicide. After a coronial inquest two earlier homicides were also linked to the shooting and subsequently resolved. Through this unusual case this paper explores how efforts to reduce uncertainty help clarify the limits of forensic and behavioural analysis. Uncertainty over motivations and the mental health of the suspect led to different psychiatric, psychological, behavioural profiling and criminological explanations of this complex event. This case study compares the different approaches to uncertainty in the expert opinion offered by these disciplines. The paper concludes by advocating the explicit recognition of uncertainty as a means of advancing an investigation.