基于物质平衡原则的中国工业碳排放绩效分析

Analysis of the Performance of Carbon Emissions from China's Industrial Sector Based on the Materials Balance Principle

基于物质平衡原则,应用数据包络分析法构建了Malmquist碳生产率指数,用以考察碳排放绩效的动态变化。通过该指数的分解,碳排放绩效的变化被分解为技术效率效应、技术变化效应和配置效率效应,从而揭示了提升碳排放绩效的三个重要途径,即技术效率改进、技术进步和配置效率改善。应用上述分析框架,论文分析了1997-2012年期间中国工业碳排放绩效的动态变化及主要来源。结果显示,在全国平均水平上,研究期间中国工业部门的碳排放绩效总体上增长较快,碳生产率年均增长率为5.8%;碳排放绩效增长的主要来源为配置效率的提高,其次为技术进步,而技术效率的下降起到了抑制作用。分地区来看,东部地区碳排放绩效增长较快,而中西部地区碳排放绩效增长相对较缓。而且这种地区差异还有扩大趋势,其主要原因在于:中西部地区的技术进步速度明显慢于东部地区,而技术效率下降的速度快于东部地区。论文还实证检验了碳排放绩效的影响因素。为了控制变量的空间交互作用,采用了空间计量模型。实证结果表明:国有化程度、能源自给率对碳排放绩效有显著的负向影响;研发投入、外贸开放度、外商直接投资、能源价格对碳排放绩效有显著的正面影响,而人力资本的影响不显著。此外,国有化程度、人力资本对碳排放绩效的空间溢出效应显著为负,研发投入、外商直接投资和能源价格的空间溢出效应显著为正,而外贸开放度、能源自给率的空间溢出效应不显著。最后,根据实证结果,论文提出了一些政策建议。

Based on the materials balance principle,this study employed the approach of data envelopment analysis to construct the Malmquist carbon productivity index（ MCPI）,a new performance index for carbon emissions. The index can be decomposed into three components： technical efficiency change,technological change,and allocative efficiency change indices. It reveals three important pathways to the improvement of carbon emissions performance,namely,the increase in technical and allocative efficiencies and the progress of technology. The study then applied the above method to analyze the dynamic and sources of carbon emissions performance in China＇s industrial sector from 1997 to 2012. Results showed that the MCPI increased rapidly at the national level,with an average annual growth rate of 5. 8% during the study period. The increase in allocative efficiency and technological progress were the top and second-largest contributors to the enhancement of carbon emissions performance,respectively,whereas the drop in technical efficiency affected this performance negatively. At the provincial level,the improvement of carbon emissions performance in the eastern region was remarkably faster than those in the central and western regions. Moreover,these provincial disparities displayed a growth trend during the study period. The reason was that the rates of increase in technological progress in the central and western regions were significantly less than that in the eastern region,whereas the rates of decline in technical efficiency in the central and western regions were more than that in the eastern region. This study also explored the impact factors of carbon emissions performance using spatial econometrics models,which were commonly employed to control the spatial interaction effects of variables. Empirical results confirmed that the output share of state-owned firms and the self-sufficient rate of energy limited carbon emissions performance,whereas research and development,international trade,foreign direct investment, and the price of energy enhanced it. Human capital was an insignificant factor in this performance. The results also found that the spatial spillover effects of the output share of state-owned firms and human capital on carbon emissions performance were significantly negative,whereas those of research and development,foreign direct investment and the price of energy were positive. The spillover effects of self-sufficient rate of energy and international trade were insignificant. At the end of this paper,several policy advices were proposed according to the empirical results.