黄河三角洲高效生态经济区工业结构调整与碳减排对策研究

Research on Industrial Structure Adjustment and Carbon Emissions of the Yellow River Delta High-efficiency Ecological Economic Region

通过调整工业结构控制和减缓碳排放是当前完成节能减排任务的重要途径。本文通过碳排放测算方法和Tapio脱钩状态分析模型,首先分析了黄河三角洲高效生态经济区(以下简称黄区)工业与碳排放的现状;然后利用LMDI分解模型分析了影响碳排放的主要因素;运用LEAP模型,对黄区工业碳排放情景进行设置预测;最后提出了对策建议。得出以下重要结论:12005-2012年黄区碳排放量上升趋势明显。其中,重点控排行业的碳排放量占碳排放总量的比重在85%以上;但碳排放强度呈下降趋势且处于相对脱钩状态。2经济总量是碳排放增加的主要因素,产业结构和技术效率是碳减排的主要因素,但产业结构的减排效果不明显,这也意味着其减排潜力较大。3比较基准情景、低碳情景和强化低碳情景,强化低碳情景下的碳减排潜力最大,但此情景下的经济社会发展将会受到一定程度的影响,而低碳情景下的发展模式相对较为合理。依据上述结论,从产业结构、能源结构及技术进步等方面提出对策建议,以期优化黄区工业结构、有效控制和减缓碳排放,实现经济与环境的协调发展。

Through the calculation method of carbon emissions and the Tapio decoupling state analysis model,the paper firstly analyzed current situation of industrial carbon emissions of Yellow River Delta. Then,the LMDI decomposition model was used to analyze the main influence factors of carbon emissions,and the LEAP model was used to predict the industrial carbon emissions of yellow zone; Finally,the countermeasures and suggestions were put forward. The conclusions were： Firstly,carbon emissions of the Yellow River Delta significantly rose in 2005- 2012. The key to control carbon industry accounted for the total carbon emissions in the proportion of more than 85%. Secondly,the total economy was a major factor of increasing carbon emissions. The industrial structure and technical efficiency were the main factors of carbon emission reduction. But the emission reduction effect of the industrial structure was not obvious,which may mean that the reduction potential was larger. Thirdly,comparing the baseline scenario,low-carbon scenario and the intensified low-carbon scenario,the potential of carbon emission reduction in the intensified low-carbon scenario was maximal. But the economic and social development will be affected in the intensified low-carbon scenario,and development in the lowcarbon scenario was relatively reasonable. Based on the above conclusions,from the industrial structure,energy structure and technical progress,some countermeasures and suggestions were put forward,in order to optimize the industrial structure,control and reduce the carbon emissions,realize the coordinated development of economy and environment.