基于EIO-LCA的江苏省产业结构调整与碳减排潜力分析

Analysis of Industrial Structure Adjustment and Carbon Reduction Potential in Jiangsu Province: Based on EIO-LCA Model

随着城镇化与工业化进程的推进,经济增长与环境压力之间的矛盾日益加剧。为实现节能减排目标,研究以调整产业结构为主要碳减排路径的清洁发展机制尤为重要与迫切。江苏省是全国工业经济大省和碳排放大省之一。因此,本文以江苏省细分行业为例,采用投入产出生命周期评价方法对江苏省产业的直接和间接碳排放进行测算。并构建碳减排潜力模型模拟产业结构调整引起的减排潜力。结果表明:1一次性能源消费引起的直接碳排放最大的贡献部门是电力、热力的生产和供应业,占总体能源消费碳排放的50.58%,其次是化学工业(9.65%),金属冶炼及压延加工业是第三贡献者(9.31%)。2从生产链视角,间接碳排放较高的部门依次为:从电力、热力生产和供应业(15.183×106t)、煤炭开采和洗选业(8.099 8×106t)、石油加工、炼焦及核燃料加工业(4.694 4×106t);消费需求视角,间接碳排放主要贡献来自于出口隐含碳排放;从部门层次来看,通信设备、计算机及及其他电子设备制造业(16.55%)、金属冶炼及压延加工业(12.65%)、交通运输设备制造业(12.49%)在出口碳排放中贡献较大。3江苏省碳减排潜力较大的部门主要是能源密集型行业。如产值变动1%,电力、热力生产供应业减排效应达1.58 t/104元,碳减排量占2010年碳排放1.57%。因此,建议江苏省除了使用粉煤燃烧技术(PCC)、整体煤气化联合循环(IGCC)、大型循环流化床(CFB)等先进技术提高能源利用强度以外,开发利用可再生能源和新能源来优化能源结构。另外,重点提升具有较大减排潜力部门的产值,例如通信设备、计算机及其他电子设备制造业、通用、专用设备制造业。

With the development of urbanization and industrialization,it is a heated contradiction between economic growth and environmental pressures. Therefore,to save energy and reduce carbon emission,industrial restructing is of great importantance.Jiangsu Province is one of the most developed industrial economies as well as the biggest carbon emitters. Hence,taking the detailed industries of Jiangsu Province as a case study,this paper estimates direct and indirect carbon emissions of industries using input-output life cycle assessment model. And then carbon reducing potential models were created to simulate the effect of reducing potential resulted from industrial restructuring. The results show that： 1The largest contributor to direct carbon emissions caused by primary energy consumption is electric and heat power,which accounts for 50. 58% of total carbon emissions based on energy consumption,followed by chemical industry（ 9. 65%）,and metal melting and rolling industrye（ 9. 31%）. 2From the produce chains perspective,the major industry emitters of indirect carbon emissions are electric and heat power（ 1 518. 3 × 10^4tons）,coal mining and dressing（ 809. 98 × 10^4tons） and petroleum refining,coking and nuclear industry（ 469. 44 × 10^4tons）; from consumer demand perspective,export embodied emissions is a major contributor to the overall indirect emissions. At the sector level,telecommunication,computer and other equipment manufacturing（ 16. 55% of total exports carbon emissions）,metal minerals mining and dressing industry（ 12. 65%）,transportation equipment manufacturing（ 12. 49%） are obvious contributors to the export embodied carbon emissions. 3The largest contributor sectors of carbon reducing potential are mainly energy-intensive industries. For example,when the output value of industry changes by 1%,the reduction effect of electric and heat power industry would change 1. 58 t /10^4 yuan,which the amount of carbon reduction accounts for 1. 57% of the total carbon emissions in 2010. Therefore,this paper makes suggestions to Jiangsu Province grovernment that renewable and new energy should be developed to optimize the energy structure as well as improving energy efficiency by using the advanced technology,such as Pulverized Coal Combustion（ PCC）,Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle（ IGCC）,and Circulating Fluidized Bed（ CFB）. In addition,enhancing production value of larger reduction potencial sectors,such as communication equipment,computer and other electronic industry,and general or special equipment manufacturing.