中日韩城市化过程中的资源环境变化比较研究

Comparative Study on Urbanization Process and Changes of Resource and Environment in China,Japan and Korea

城市化是世界各国社会经济发展的重要特征,是一种强烈的地表人类活动过程,在促进经济和社会发展的同时给资源环境带来了一系列负面影响。城市化过程的直接表现是乡村人口进入城市,用人口城市化表征城市化水平。中日韩是亚洲和东北亚地区经济实力最强的三个核心国家。以中日韩三国为例,基于面板数据模型框架,对比分析1950-2012年三国城市化的发展阶段和过程,采用线性回归方法定量研究三国城市化进程与资源环境变化之间的相互关系。结果表明:中日韩三国城市化进程存在较大差异,城市化起点不同、发展速度不同、所处阶段不同。中国城市化起步分别比日韩晚80年、20年。中日韩三国城市化水平的发展趋势均呈快速增长,日韩两国在二战后城市化水平的增长速度均远超中国。目前日韩两国均已处于城市化后期,并已经成功跨越了中等收入陷阱,进入发达经济体,两国城市化率分别为91.73%,83.47%;而中国目前正处于城市化中期和跨越中等收入陷阱的关键阶段,城市化率为51.78%。中日韩三国城市化进程与资源环境变化有着密切关系。随着城市化水平的提高,城市化与土地资源、水资源呈显著负相关,与能源使用量呈显著正相关。中日韩三国城市化率每提高1%,人均耕地面积分别减少24 m2,10 m2,9 m2,人均水资源量分别减少64 m3,43 m3,21 m3,人均能源消费量分别增加42 kg,76 kg,111 kg。借鉴日韩经验,建议中国提高资源、能源利用效率,调整产业结构,加强环境监管,控制废弃物排放,建设生态城市,实现城市化快速发展、资源高效利用和生态环境保护共赢。

Urbanization,an important feature for social and economic development around the world,is an intense human activity at the earth＇s surface,and has brought a series of negative effects to resources and environment. Urbanization is a process in which the rural population moves into cities. Urban population rate was used to represent the level of urban development. China,Japan and Korea are the three important economics in Asia and Northeast Asia. Taking China,Japan and Korea as representative examples,their urbanization stage and process during 1950- 2012 were studied based on Panel Data Model Framework,and the relationship between their urbanization process and changes of resources and environment were quantitative studied by linear regression model. The results showed that there were great differences of urbanization process in the three countries,different start time,different speed,and different stage. The start time of China was 80 years and 20 years later than Japan and Korea respectively. Urbanization speed in both Japan and Korea grew more rapidly than that in China after the World War Ⅱ. Japan and Korea are now at the late of stage of urbanization and successfully crossed the middle-income trap into developed economies,with urbanization ratio of 91. 73% and83. 47% respectively. China is now at the middle stage of urbanization and the key stage of overcoming middle-income trap,with urbanization ratio of 51. 78%. But the urbanization process was closely related to the changes of resources and environment in all these three countries. With urbanization ratio increasing in China,Japan and Korea,land resources and water resources demonstrated significant-negative correlations with urbanization ratio. However,energy use expressed significant positive correlation with urbanization ratio. When urbanization rate increase by 1%,per capita arable land will decrease by 24 m2,10 m2,9 m2,per capita water resources will decrease 64 m3、43 m3、21 m3,and per capita energy consumption will increase 42 kg,76 kg and 111 kg respectively in the three countries. Learning from Japan and Korea,it was suggested that China should improve utilization efficiency of energy and resources,adjust the industrial structure,strengthen supervision of environment,control waste emissions,and build ecological city in order to achieve a win-win situation of urbanization development,resource utilization and ecological protection.