我国影子银行发展与经济增长关系的实证研究

Empirical Study on the Development of Chinese Shadow Banking and the Economic Growth

本文从信贷需求角度对我国1990—2014年影子银行规模进行系统测度,通过建立VAR模型对影子银行发展与经济增长的关系进行实证研究。结果显示:经济增长与影子银行发展存在单向因果关系,即经济增长促进了影子银行发展,反之则不成立。本文认为监管部门应加强对影子银行的监管,引导影子银行资金流向,建立预警监测系统以保证影子银行风险可控。

This article measures the scale of Chinese shadow banking from 1990-2014 in view of the credit demand, and empirically examines the relationship between the development of shadow banking and the economic growth by establishing VAR model. The results show that there is a unidirectional causality between the economic growth and the development of shadow banking,which means that the economic growth promotes the development of shadow banking,but the converse is not so;We suggest that the regulatory authority should strengthen the regulation of shadow banking,guide the capital flows and establish the early warning monitoring system to ensure the controllability of risk.