中国省域新型城镇化发展的系统评价研究

Systemic Evaluation of Chinese Provincial New Urbanization's Development

以中央城镇化工作会议精神与《国家新型城镇化发展规划2014—2020》为指导,本文选取反映新型城镇化发展规划理念的五个一级指标、十九个二级指标、五十八个三级指标,收集全国31个省1994年至2012年的数据,利用因子扩展的面板向量自回归(FAPVAR)模型及其结构脉冲响应分析与方差分解分析方法,在考虑分类指标相互作用的情况下,系统地确定各大类指标的权重,构造了新型城镇化发展指数。它可以全面系统地反映中国各省市新型城镇化建设的进展情况。

In accordance with the spirit of the central urbanization working conference and national urbanization development plan ＂2014—2020＂,this paper uses the 31 provinces 1994—2012 data,selected to reflect the new trend of urbanization development plan of the five first level indicators,nineteen two level index,fifty-eight three level index,comprehensively utilize the Panel Vector Factor Extended Autoregressive Model（ FAPVAR） and its Structural Impulse Response Analysis and Variance Decomposition method,to determine the weight of every index,and construct the Chinese provincial new urbanization＇s development index,in order to comprehensively and systematically reflect the Chinese provincial new urbanization＇s development.