7个CMIP5模式的平流层、对流层温度趋势与SSU/MSU观测资料的对比

Comparison of stratospheric and tropospheric temperature trend between seven CMIP5 models and SSU/MSU observations

采用1979—2005年美国大气海洋局(NOAA)的卫星观测资料和IPCC第5次全球气候变化比较试验(CMIP5)的模式资料,对全球对流层和平流层近26 a的气温趋势进行了研究。结果表明,CMIP5模拟的全球平均大气温度趋势与观测结果较一致,能够再现平流层冷却和对流层增温等特点,但是在气温趋势的经纬度分布上,模式资料与观测资料间存在较大差异,同时模式间也存在明显的不一致。与观测资料相比,CMIP5模式资料低估了平流层在热带地区的降温速率,而且明显高估了对流层中部到平流层下层的南极区域的降温趋势。不同CMIP5模式间的最大标准方差出现在平流层的南北极区域,但是在对流层所有纬度上标准方差都保持着较小值。

Global atmospheric temperature trends from the middle troposphere to the upper stratosphere are investigated based on the simulations from the Coupled Climate Model Inter-comparison Project phase5（ CMIP5） together with NOAA satellite observations from 1979 to 2005. Results show that the CMIP5 model simulations can reproduce the features of stratospheric cooling and tropospheric warming,which are consistent with the observations,but the CMIP5 simulations display different latitudinal-longitudinal patterns from SSU / MSU measurements,with significant discrepancies among the selected models. Compared with observations,the CMIP5 simulations significantly underestimate the stratospheric cooling in the tropics and substantially overestimate the cooling over the Antarctic in the MSU observations. The largest standard variation among the seven CMIP5 simulations is seen in both the south and north polar regions in the stratosphere,and the standard variation retains similar small values at all latitudes in the troposphere.