宝鸡市肾综合征出血热流行特征及预测分析

Analysis of the epidemiological characteristics and the prediction of HFRS in Baoji City

目的了解2005—2013年宝鸡市肾综合征出血热（简称出血热）流行特征,并建立出血热发病预测模式。方法对宝鸡市2005—2013年的出血热疫情资料用描述流行病学方法进行统计分析,利用历史数据建立预测模型。结果 2005—2013年共报告出血热2 233例,年平均发病率为6.67/10万,病死率为0.54%,发病季节性特点明显。发病职业以农民为主（1 799例）,占发病总数的88.54%,发病年龄以40~59岁年龄段最高（1 128例）,占发病总数的50.52%,男女性别比为3∶1,自回归移动平均模型预测提示近年出血热发病可能仍处于高发水平。结论宝鸡市出血热发病进入一个发病周期,近年发病可能仍处于高发水平,应对重点地区、重点人群及时采取防控措施,自回归移动平均模型对预测宝鸡市出血热有一定的实用意义。

[Objective]To understand the epidemiological characteristics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome（HFRS） in Baoji City from 2005-2013, and establish the prediction model for HFRS incidence.[Methods]Descriptive epidemiology was conducted on the incidence data of HFRS in Baoji City from 2005-2013, then the prediction model was established,[Results]A total Of 2 233 HFRS cases were reported from 2005 to 2013. The incidence rate was 6.67/100 000, and the overall fatality was 0.54%.The seasonality characteristics of the HFRS was obvious. Most cases were peasants （1 799）, accounting for 88.54%, and the 40-59 years age group had the highest incidence （50.52%, 1 128 cases）. The male to female ratio of the HFRS was 3：1. Prediction model was established by the autoregressive integrated moving average （ARIMA） model which showed that the HFRS was on a rising trend in recent years. [Conclusion]There is a tendency of rising in the prevalence of HFRS in Baoji City, therefore some prevention and control measures should take in key areas and groups. The ARIMA model has practical values in the prediction of the HFRS.