污水BOT项目投资参数快速反演计算研究

Rapid inversion of investment parameters of wastewater BOT project

污水BOT项目的投资参数,尤其是水价,是政府与企业关注的重点。由于投资测算模型中自变量、因变量函数关系复杂,长久以来,投资分析主要以试算及经验为主。以某污水BOT项目为依托,详细分析了污水BOT项目水价组成并根据水价组成分析结果,采用均匀设计理论设计了试验工况,然后将各试验工况计算结果代入测算模型计算,建立了污水BOT投资项目自变量、因变量BP网络函数模型。在给定盈利能力指标、债务偿还指标、财务生存指标的基础上快速反演了投资参数。此方法将为其它类似项目提供借鉴。

The wastewater BOT project investment parameters,especially the water price,are major concerns of government and related enterprises. Due to the complexity of functional relation of the independent variable and dependent variable in the investment calculation model,the investment analysis has been mainly dependent on empirical and trial calculation for a long time.Taking a wastewater BOT project as an example,the composition of the water price is analyzed in detail,and on this basis,several test cases are designed by uniform design theory. The calculation results of each case are introduced into the calculation model to establish a BP network function model of independent and dependent variable of wastewater BOT investment project. On the base of the given profitability indicators,debt indicators and financial viability indicators,the investment parameters are inversed rapidly. It shows that the inversion results are reliable and can provide a reference for the contract negotiations of the wastewater treatment BOT project.