利率市场化对中国财政政策效应的影响——基于动态随机一般均衡的研究

The Effectiveness of Interest Rate Liberalization On Economic Structure and Fiscal Policy

参照Tsung-wu Ho(2001)假设政府财政支出的目标是实现居民效用最大化,将政府支出作为内生变量纳入新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡模型,分析和预测利率市场化进程中,均衡利率上升对中国财政政策效应的影响。模型的数值波动模拟显示,均衡利率上升能有效改善经济结构,减小产出和通胀面对技术冲击、财政与货币政策冲击的波动。脉冲响应结果显示,积极的财政政策对投资和消费存在挤出效应,但是短期内能够有效的促进经济增长。利率市场化进程中均衡利率上升使得消费和投资面对政府财政政策冲击时的挤出效应增强,但由于利率上升带来经济结构的调整,短期内政府支出冲击反而能更有效地刺激经济增长,长期内对产出的负向影响并没有明显增强。

Assuming that the government＇s target of fiscal expenditure is to realize the residents＇ utility maximization,we take government spending as endogenous variables and nest into the new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. By calibration and simulating a DSGE model,we explain,analysis and predict the fiscal policy effects of interest rate liberalization in China. The numerical simulation show that increasing interest rates can improve the economic structure and offset fluctuation facing with technological shocks,monetary policy shocks and fiscal policy shocks; Impulse response analysis show positive fiscal policy can crowd out investment and consumption,but in the short term can effectively promote economic growth; increasing interest rates strength the effect of crowding out in the consumption and investment.