外商直接投资与中国碳排放关系——基于ARDL的实证研究

Empirical Research on the Relationship between FDI and CO_2 Emissions in China——The Empirical Research Based on ARDL

应用自回归分布滞后模型(ARDL)研究外商直接投资与中国碳排放之间的长短期相互关系。发现在长短期内,FDI的流入增加了碳排放,说明FDI在产业转移的同时,也转移了相当部分的碳排放。而我国高碳的经济发展模式是吸引FDI进入高排放、高能耗、高污染产业的主要动因。虽然外资也带来了更加清洁与低碳的技术,但是FDI的技术效应为高碳的产业结构效应所抵消。研究还发现经济增长在长短期内增加了我国的碳排放,且短期系数高于长期系数。

An autoregressive distributed lag（ ARDL） model is applied to examine the short-and long-run relationship between foreign direct investment（ FDI） and CO2 Emissions in China. We find that FDI tends to deteriorate the environment in both the short-and long-run. FDI moved quite a part of the carbon emissions while in industrial transfer. China＇s economic development pattern of high carbon is the main cause to attract FDI into heavy pollution and high carbon industries. FDI transferred clean and advanced technology to China. But the technology effect is often offset by compostion effect of high carbon. And economic growth is found to have a detrimental effect on the environment both in the short-and long-run and the short term coefficient is bigger than the long-term coefficient