非参数条件众数模型对人民币利率汇率关系分析

Anylysis on the relationship of RMB interest rate and exchange rate Based on Conditional Mode

利率的调控影响资本流动进而影响汇率的变动,汇率变动反过来影响货币供应量进而影响利率的变动。通过对利率平价条件公式进行变换,利用条件众数模型对中美利差与人民币对美元汇率进行数据分析,发现在2008年9月金融危机爆发以前中国汇率表现出急剧升值的趋势并且表现出不稳定的特性,提出应对人民币的升值的策略。

The relation modification has been noticed between the RMB interest rate and exchange rate.The regulation-interest rate effects capital flow and exchange rate variety,vice versa.In this paper,we transform the interest parity condition formula,using conditional mode model,to analyze the data our collected.We find that the Chinese exchange rate shows a sharp down and meanwhile presents the unstable character before the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008.Hereafter,we give some advice for dealing with the appreciation of RMB,which is learning from Japan.