综采工作面相对瓦斯涌出量灰色模型预测

Using grey model to forecast the relative gas emission from the fully mechanized working face

以灰色模型GM(1,1)为基础,对赵庄煤矿综采工作面的相对瓦斯涌出量进行了灰色预测和精度检验,并利用残差灰色模型对预测结果进行了修正.结果表明,灰色预测模型所需建模信息少,运算方便,模型预测精度高,是处理小样本预测问题的有效工具;当预测结果不满足精度要求时,还可以建立残差灰色模型对预测结果进行修正,从而进一步提高预测结果精度;在预测煤层相对瓦斯涌出量时,能达到较高的精度,可以满足工程技术的要求.

Based on the grey model GM （ 1,1 ）, the relative gas emission from the fully mechanized coal face of Zhao - zhuang mine was predicted, and the predicted results are modified by using the residual grey model. It shows that the grey prediction model requires less modeling information while operating more conveniently, with high prediction accuracy, which is an effective tool for dealing with small sample prediction. When the predicted results did not meet the requirements for precision, the residual gray model can also be estab-lished to modify the forecasting results so as to improve the prediction accuracy further. In predicting the relative gas emission of the coal seam, higher precision can be achieved, satisfying the requirement of engineering.