中国城市车辆密度、劳动生产率与拥堵成本研究

A Study on Vehicle Density,Labor Productivity,and Congestion Cost of Chinese Cities

本文根据拥堵外部性和居民与厂商最优化原理构建模型,检验交通密度对生产率的影响。结果显示我国百万人口以上和以下城市最佳车辆密度分别为1813和2812辆/km2;在2003-2012年期间,拥堵的城市从16个增至166个,生产率损失从255亿元上升到7877亿元,几乎全在大城市;城市路桥资本上升10%,通行能力增长约16%,大城市投资收益远高于小城市投资收益。

Built on the mechanism of externality of traffic congestion and the optimization of residents and firms,this paper derives a general equilibrium model and uses a panel dataset of China＇s prefectural or higher-level cities for 2003- 2012 to examine the effect of vehicle density on labor productivity. The econometric results show that the large cities with a population greater than one million and the rest of the cities had optimal densities of 1813 and 2812 vehicles per square kilometer,respectively; the number of congested cities increased from 16 to 166 during the study period and the loss of productivity due to congestion grew from RMB 25. 5 billion to RMB 787. 7 billion,of which 731. 9 billion were accounted for by 101 large cities; a 10% increase in the capital stock of urban streets and bridges raised road capacity by 16%,and the economic return on the investment in large cities was much higher than the capital cost while the return on the investment in smaller cities was much less than the cost.