后发国家(地区)企业技术能力动态演进特征研究——基于潜在转换分析方法

On the Dynamic Characteristics of Firm Technological Capabilities in Later Comer Countries(Regions)——A Latent Transition Analysis

国际技术转移对于后发国家企业的技术能力追赶起着重要的作用。本文研究东欧和中亚国家多个企业技术能力的动态演进过程,并探讨国外技术对企业技术能力发展的影响作用。不同于以往文献中案例研究的分析方法,本研究提出潜在转换分析(LTA)的计量经济方法探讨大量企业技术能力演进的进程,拓展了研究对象的范围。该模型测算出企业技术能力发展的三个动态阶段,研究发现企业技术能力的发展存在粘滞现象,所以他们向更高阶段的发展需要有意识努力和策略。在不同的国际技术转移渠道中,直接技术来源对企业技术能力的发展更为重要,尤其是技术许可和进口中间投入显著促进技术能力处于中低阶段的企业向高级阶段转移升级,FDI对于处于低水平技术能力的企业发展更为重要,而出口对企业技术能力发展的作用并不显著。

In view of the importance of international technology transfer on the technology learning for firms in developing economies, this article explores the dynamic patterns of technological capabilities for Eastern European and Central Asian firms and investigates the impacts of foreign technology on their transitions over time. Adopting a latent transition analysis （LTA） model,it identifies a three-state dynamics along the evolution of technological capabilities for a large number of firms. The result indicates a sticky phenomenon during the upgrading of technological capabilities, and therefore the acquisition of technological capabilities requires conscious efforts and strategy by firms. Among the different channels of international technology transfer, technology licenses and imported intermediate inputs help the transition of firms towards more advanced levels; FDI plays an important role in transition of firms, which only have basic technological capabilities. Exports do not show a significant effect on the transition of firms in terms of technological capabilities.