1998-2012年中国耕地复种指数时空差异及动因

Spatiotemporal difference and determinants of multiple cropping index in China during 1998-2012

从国家、区域和省级三个层面上分析了1998-2012年间中国耕地复种指数的变化趋势,并基于Theil指数探讨了中国耕地复种指数的时空差异,利用计量经济学模型从人文视角探讨了耕地复种指数变化的影响因素。结果表明:1在全国尺度上,中国耕地复种指数总体上呈逐年增长的趋势。2在区域尺度上,复种指数最高的为中部地区,最低的为东北地区;而复种指数增长最快的是东北地区,最慢的是中部地区,东部地区呈下降趋势。3中国31个省份复种指数各不相同,且差距大,复种指数增长最快的是新疆、宁夏和云南。4由Theil指数值的大小可知,中国耕地复种指数的差异呈缩小态势,其主要原因为四大区域间的差异。5人口非农化比重对耕地复种指数产生了显著负向作用,产业非农化比重、农业政策、人均经营耕地和农村家庭人均经营纯收入对耕地复种指数产生了显著正向作用。最后,本文认为转移农村剩余劳动力,提高农民的经营性收入水平,促进土地流转,形成土地规模化经营,以及进一步加大对欠发达地区及粮食主产区农业发展的惠农扶持力度,充分发挥国家惠农政策的诱致作用,有利于全面提高中国耕地复种水平。

This paper examines the trend of multiple cropping index （MCI） change in China at national, regional and provincial levels during 1998-2012. Based on the Theil index, it explores the spatio-temporal difference of MCI in China. In addition, a spatial econometric model is used to identify the determinants of the temporal and spatial differences of MCI from the behavior perspective. The results are summarized as follows： （1） From the national perspective, the MCP shows an increasing trend year by year. （2） At the regional level, Northeast China is the fastest growing area in terms of the MCI, whereas the central region is the slowest growing area. The central region has the highest level of MCI, while the northeast region shows the lowest level. （3） According to the Theil index value, the differences of MCI show a narrowing trend, which is mainly attributed to the differences among the four regions. （4） The MCI shows differences among China＇s 31 provinces, and the gap is great. （5） The proportion of non-agricultural population has a significant negative effect on the MCI, and the proportion of non-agricul^tre industry, agricultural policy and the per capita operating arable land have significant positive impact on the MCI. Finally, some policies are suggested to raise the level of China＇s cultivated cropping, such as transfering rural surplus labor, increasing the farmers＇ income, accelerating the transfer of cultivated land＇s right of use, form the scale effect of land use, further supporting and benefiting farmers in underdeveloped regions and major grain producing areas, and strengthening the role of the national agricultural policy.