景观生态风险评价研究进展与展望

Review on landscape ecological risk assessment

面向全球城市化进程的快速推进与生物圈环境变化的不断增强,生态风险评价能够明晰制约区域生态持续性的主要生态要素与过程,成为当前自然地理学与宏观生态学应对社会—生态系统综合管理的热点研究领域之一。景观生态学高度关注空间异质性及景观格局—过程互馈,景观生态风险评价则为这一领域提供了新的研究视角。本文明确界定了景观生态风险评价的概念内涵,系统梳理了景观生态风险评价与生态风险评价、区域生态风险评价的异同;从评价对象的类型选择、评价单元的景观意义表征、评价方法的范式统一、评价模型的指数化途径和评价指标权重设定等方面,探讨了国内外景观生态风险评价的近今进展;同时,研究还展望了景观生态风险评价的重点发展方向,即基于景观过程的生态内涵明晰、尺度推绎在风险评价中的应用、评价结果的不确定性分析、耦合非线性生态模型的风险阈值判定、生态系统服务及其价值的整合、源汇景观过程识别与模型综合集成。

Under the background of accelerating global urbanization and environmental change, it is of great significance for ecological risk assessment to identify local ecological elements and processes influencing regional ecological sustainability. Ecological risk assessment has been regarded as one of the key topics in researches on integrated management of social ecological system in the view of physical geography and macro ecology. With a special focus on spatial heterogeneity and the correlations between landscape patterns and ecological processes deriving from landscape ecology, landscape ecological risk assessment （LERA） deepens this topic with a new perspective and paradigm. In this paper, through the contrast among ecological risk assessment, regional ecological risk assessment, and landscape ecological risk assessment, the connotation of LERA is clearly defined. Detailed research progresses on LERA are also discussed and focused on region selection of assessing target, landscape meaning characterization of assessing unit, paradigm uniformity of assessing method, indexation of assessing model, and weight setting of assessing index. Finally, future research prospects on LERA are proposed, including detecting ecological implication in the view of landscape process, applying the scaling concept in risk assessment, quantifying the uncertainty of assessing results, coupling nonlinear ecological model with risk threshold determination, incorporating values of ecosystem services into risk assessment, and integrating multiple ecological models through the identification of source and sink landscape process. A framework has also been constructed to illustrate the logic relationships among the prospects of LERA.