批发零售业与经济增长关系实证研究——基于中美两国对比视角

Empirical Study of the Relationship Between Wholesale Retail Trade and Economic Growth—Based on China and the United States Comparative Perspective

文章基于1993—2012年中美两国批发零售业增加值和GDP的相关数据,运用协整分析法,并考虑了非平稳性及误差修正项的格兰杰因果检验法,来研究中美两国批发零售业与经济增长之间关系的异同。实证研究表明:在长期,中美两国批发零售业与经济增长之间都存在长期均衡关系,且美国的批发零售与GDP增长的关系比中国的更加密切;在短期,中美两国批发零售业与经济增长之间均存在波动关系,且一旦两个变量关系失衡,相比于美国,中国的批发零售业与经济增长二者之间对该失衡的修正要更加及时。中国存在从批发零售业到经济增长的单向格兰杰因果关系,美国存在从经济增长到批发零售业的单向格兰杰因果关系。

This paper based on the GDP and value added of wholesale and retail trade 1993-2012 data in China and the United States from 1993 to 2012. To compare the relationship of the wholesale and retail trade and economic growth between China and the United States, this paper use co-integration analysis and Grainger test by considering the non-stationary nature and the error correction term. The studies show that the relationships of the wholesale and retail trade and economic growth between China and the United States are long-run equilibrium relationships in the long-term, while they will flux in the short-term. Once the relationship losses balance, China correct the imbalance more timely compared to the United States. China has a unidirectional Grainger causal relation from the wholesale and retail trade to economic growth; however, the United States has a unidirectional Grainger causal relation from economic growth to the wholesale and retail trade.