基于季节指数法的造口护理门诊量趋势分析

Analysis of ostomy nursing care outpatients trend based on seasonal index

目的：探讨季节指数法在造口护理门诊量中的应用,掌握其变化规律并进行门诊量预测。方法以南京医科大学附属淮安第一人民医院2010年1月—2014年5月造口护理门诊量为研究对象建立模型,对序列进行季节性分解、拟合和预测。结果本院造口门诊量与时间序列存在正相关性（r =0．914,P＜0.05）。造口护理门诊量具有长期的增长趋势及季节性特点,季节指数具有中间高、两头低的特点。模型的拟合效果较好,与此同时预测的门诊量继续稳步增加。结论季节指数法适用于探求造口护理门诊序列的变化规律及未来发展趋势的把握,应用于造口护理门诊量,不仅为医院管理者掌握其变化规律提供参考,也为预测未来造口护理门诊的发展提供了新思路。

Objective To explore the application of seasonal index in the ostomy nursing care outpatient′s quantity, grasp the regularity and forecast them. Methods The ostomy nursing care quantity in the outpatient of our hospital from January 2010 to May 2014 were counted, and the sequence was Seasonal decomposed, fitted and predicted. Results The correlation coefficient of the ostomy nursing care quantity in the outpatient and time series was 0. 914 （ P 〈 0. 01 ）. It had a long-term growth trend and the seasonal characteristics. The middle seasonal index was higher than both ends of the seasonal index. The model was well fitted and the predicted outpatients in 2014 continued to increase steadily. Conclusions The seasonal index is suitable for hunting variation of ostomy nursing care outpatient′s quantity and grasping the future trend. The seasonal index applies for the ostomy care outpatients provides a reference for hospital administrators grasping the variation, and a new way to forecast the future ostomy care development.