民间金融风险的测度与预警研究——以温州为例

Research on Measurement and Forewarning of Private Financial Risks——A Case Study on Wenzhou

近年来,国内陆续出现企业家"跑路"现象,最终演变成民间借贷风波等一系列经济社会问题,暴露出民间金融暗藏着巨大金融风险。当前,国内专门研究民间金融风险测度与预警的文献还较少,本文旨在弥补这一不足。文章运用向量自回归模型(VAR)分析,探索对民间金融风险的测度与预警体系的建立,为防范和化解区域民间金融风险提供决策参考。

In recent years, continuous events happened in China that some entrepreneurs escaped to shun their debit liability. The events evolve and finally lead to social and economic problems in China such as private debit and credit related disturbances, and reveal the enormous financial risks existing in private fund-raising in China. However, there currently exists limited literature on measuring and forewarning China’s private financial risks. The paper, intending to fill in the gap, employs the VAR model to explore the system of measuring and forewarning the private financial risks, and thus hopes to provide some references for the decision on preventing and mitigating the financial risks in the regional areas.