中国政府支出结构对居民消费的动态影响效应分析

The analysis of dynamic influence effect upon resident consumption by the Chinese government expenditure structure

基于转型时期中国政府主导型经济的现实,采用中国1981——2013年居民消费支出、政府消费支出、政府投资支出、政府保障支出、城乡收入差异、金融发展程度等数据,建立VAR模型,从理论和实证角度剖析了居民消费受到政府支出结构的影响幅度。实证检验发现,政府消费支出、政府保障支出对居民消费具有引致效应,政府投资支出在一定的时滞后对居民消费具有挤出效应。本文认为,政府财政政策虽然能在一定程度上调控居民消费,但居民消费不能依赖政府刺激,政府资本性质的支出应退出一般竞争性和经营性领域,仅发挥公共支出的乘数效应和正外部性,努力促进居民消费持续增长的内生机制的形成。

This paper is based on the reality of guiding-type of economy by the Chinese government in the period of transition of the national economic development pattern.The VAR model is established by adopting such Chinese data as the resident consumption expenditure,the government expenditure,the government investment expenditure,the government guarantee expenditure,the income differences between the urban and the rural,and the financial development degree,etc,during the years from 1981 to 2013.The influence magnitude of the resident consumption subject to the government expenditure structure is analyzed from the theoretical and empirical angles.The positive check has found that the government consumption expenditure and the government guarantee expenditure have had a cause effect upon the resident consumption and that the government investment expenditure has had a crowding-out effect upon the resident consumption after a time lag to a certain extent.This paper holds that although the government financial policy can regulate and control the resident consumption to a certain extent,the resident consumption cannot depend on the government stimulus,the nature of capital expenditure by the government should quit from the general competitive and operational fields and play the multiplier effect and positive externality effect so as to promote the formation of the endogenous mechanism of resident consumption sustainable growth.