基于组合决策的黄河流域水量调度方案评价方法

Evaluation on water regulation scheme in Yellow River Basin based on portfolio decision-making model

为定量评价黄河流域水量调度方案的优劣,选出水资源综合效益最大的方案,结合黄河流域实际特点,选择可供水量、利津入海水量、龙羊峡水库期末水位等10项指标为评价体系,在模糊优选法、灰色关联分析法、集对分析法等评价方法的基础上建立了组合决策模型,综合考虑各方案在不同评价方法下的优劣顺序,帮助决策者做出准确判断和选择。结果表明,组合决策方法克服了单一决策方法的不足,能够综合考虑各评价指标的重要性,较为科学合理地确定出最优方案。

In order to evaluate the water regulation scheme in the Yellow River Basin quantitatively and single out a scheme in which the comprehensive benefit of water resources is maximum, considering the actual characteristics of the Yellow River Basin, 10 indicators such as the available water supply, the amount of water into sea from Lijin, the final water level of Longyangxia Reservoir, etc. were singled out to constitute the evaluation system. A portfolio decision-making model was established based on such evaluation methods as fuzzy optimization, grey correlation analysis and set pair analysis, etc. The excellence order of all kinds of water regulation schemes under different evaluation methods was considered to help decision-makers make accurate judgments and choices. The results show that, with the portfolio decision-making model which overcomes the shortcomings of the single decision- making method, we can consider the importance of each evaluation indicators comprehensively and determine the best scheme scientifically and reasonably