基于时变参数的中国第一产业要素产出弹性估计

Estimation of elements output elasticity in China's first industry based on time-varying parameter

基于状态空间模型,利用卡尔曼滤波算法估计了时变弹性MRW生产函数,分析了1978~2012年中国第一产业各要素投入的产出弹性。分析认为：在中国现有的物质资本利用率水平和投资速度下,第一产业的物质资本产出弹性不断下降;教育资本的产出弹性随着就业人员受教育水平的提高也呈现下降趋势;尽管劳动力呈现先增后减的趋势,但是第一产业劳动力的产出弹性随着时间不断上升。

Based on state space model,this paper estimated the time-varying elasticity MRW production function by using Kalman filter algorithm and analyzed the output elasticity of all the elements in China＇s first industry from 1978 to 2012. The results showed： in the case of China＇s existing material capital utilization level and investment speed,output elasticity of physical capital in the first industry constantly declined; output elasticity of educational capital also showed a trend of decline with the improvement of the education level of employed people; despite the fact that labor force presented a trend of increasing first and decreasing followed,output elasticity of labor force in the first industry was rising over time.