我国货币政策对经济波动和通货膨胀的时变反应

Time-varying Response of Monetary Policy to Economic Fluctuation and Inflation in China

本文运用时变参数向量自回归模型,考察我国银行间同业拆借利率和广义货币供给增长率对通货膨胀、产出缺口冲击的响应动态,发现我国货币政策具有明显的相机抉择特征,而且数量型和价格型货币政策对宏观经济冲击的时变反应规律存在显著差异;数量型货币政策对宏观经济冲击的反应能力较差,价格型货币政策对通货膨胀和产出缺口冲击的反应时滞表现出逐渐缩短的趋势,但在反应强度上有所减弱。所以,现阶段不同政策工具的协同运用可以有效弥补其指标可控性与最终目标的关联性等方面的差异和不足。

Using the time- varying parameter vector autoregressive model,this paper inspects the dynamic response of interbank lending rates and broad money supply growth rate to inflation and output gap in China. The results show that China＇s monetary policy is discretionary,and the time- varying response of quantitative and price- oriented monetary policy to macroeconomic impacts is significantly different; the response capability of quantitative monetary policy to the macroeconomic impacts is relatively poor,and the response of price- oriented monetary policy to inflation and output gap appears the weakening trend,even its time- lag is getting shorter. So,combining different policy tools can effectively make up for the differences and deficiencies of their controllability and relativity with ultimate goals.