我国城镇居民收入分配状况对消费需求的影响

The Effects of Chinese Urban Residents' Income Distribution on Consumption Demand

本文利用我国1992-2012年间18个省市的面板数据,实证检验我国城镇居民平均消费倾向与基尼系数之间的关系,结果表明两者之间呈现负相关,也即缩小收入差距可以扩大总消费;在考虑了1998年的住房改革因素后,近年来城镇居民可支配收入的增长对居民消费倾向的影响并不大。因而在中国经济转型的背景下,改善收入分配的政策是最佳政策选择。

This paper empirically tests the relation between Chinese urban residents＇ average propensity to consume and the Gini Coefficient using panel data of 18 provinces from 1992 to 2012. Tests show a negative relation,which means that narrowing the income gap could expand total consumption; furthermore,this paper proves that considering the effect of the housing system reform in 1998,the growth of the urban residents＇ disposable income has insignificant effect on their average propensity to consume. Thus in the context of current economic transformation in China,improving income distribution is the best choice.