我国蔬菜种植户放弃种菜意愿及其影响因素分析——基于北方五省市的调研

Vegetable Growers' Willingness to Give Up and its Influencing Factors:A Survey from Five Northern Provinces in China

保障蔬菜供应是我国蔬菜产业发展的基本目标之一,农户蔬菜种植行为对蔬菜产业的可持续发展具有重要意义。采用我国北方设施蔬菜主产区的北京、天津、河北、辽宁和山东5个省市1171个蔬菜种植户的调研数据,在对种植户行为进行理论分析和描述性统计分析的基础上,通过运用Logistic模型,对农户蔬菜种植行为及其影响因素进行测度分析。研究结果表明,在近三成有放弃蔬菜种植意愿的农户中,蔬菜种植面积占家庭耕地面积的比例、蔬菜生产中有贷款需求但得不到满足、农户对技术有需求但得不到满足、2011年蔬菜生产中遭受自然灾害以及村中有蔬菜专业合作社等因素对农户放弃蔬菜生产意愿有正向影响;农户家庭收入和从事蔬菜生产的年限对农户放弃蔬菜生产意愿有负向影响。

To guarantee the supply of the vegetables is one of the basic goals of vegetable industry development in China. Vegetable farmers behavior is of great significance to the sustainable development of vegetable industry. Based on the survey data from 1171 facilities vegetable producing growers in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Liaoning and Shandong which locate at the northern part of China and the theory of farmers behavior. This paper uses Logistic model to analyze the planting intention of vegetable growers. The result shows that in almost thirty percent of the farmers who are willing to give up planting vegetables, the proportion of vegetable planting area of household total arable land, barriers to get the loan, barriers to use new technologies, farmers who suffered natural disaster in 2011 and the vegetable cooperatives have significant positive impacts on vegetable growers＇ intention to give up planting; family total income and the number of years in vegetable cultivation have negative impacts on vegetable growers＇ in- tention to give up. At last , this paper puts some corresponding suggestions in order to ensure the quantity of the vegetable supply and promote the development of vegetable industry in China.