石化园区规划大气环境风险模拟方法与案例

Modeling regional atmospheric risks of petrochemical park planning

为定量评估石化园区规划中的区域尺度大气环境风险水平,该文从源头预防高风险产业集聚导致的布局矛盾,综合运用风险识别技术、CALPUFF大气扩散模型、空间分析方法,构建了石化园区规划层面大气环境风险模拟方法。以某石化园区规划为例,对涉及丙烯腈、氯气、光气、硫化氢、氨气的6个重大危险源的大气风险开展了不同季节下的事故扩散模拟。结果表明:1 141.5km2(占评价区域98.7%)范围内大气环境风险水平不同程度提高,其中事故后可能对人体造成不可恢复影响的范围达到326.5km2(28.2%);秋季气象条件最不利于事故扩散,区域风险水平高于其他季节;二苯基甲烷二异氰酸酯(MDI)项目对区域大气风险水平变化的贡献超过90%。

An integrated method combining risk analysis, CALPUFF dispersion model, and spatial analyses, were used to assess the regional atmospheric risk caused by major risk sources in petrochemical park plans. A typical petrochemical park in the planning stage was selected as the case study. The risks of six major sources, involving chlorine, phosgene, hydrogen sulfide, ammonia and acrylonitrile, were simulated in different seasons. The results show that the atmospheric risk is increased in 98.7% of the region 1141.5 km2. In 28.2% of the area, i.e. 326.5 km2, human health may be adversely affected after some accidents. The meteorological conditions in the fall are not conducive to pollution dispersion. The highest risks come from the diphenyl methane diisocyanate produeing（MDI） project that contributes more than 90% of the increment in the regional atmospheric risk.