消防部队灭火抢险救援风险评估指标体系量化方法的研究

Quantification Methods of Risk Evaluation Index System for Fire Fighting and Salvage Operations of Fire Brigades

在建立了消防部队灭火抢险救援风险评估指标体系的基础上,探讨了适用于该评估方法的量化模型。主要包括各评价指标分值的量化方法,以及基于AHP的评价指标权重的确定方法。评价指标分值的量化采用百分制,重点是比较复杂的指标如何采用数学模型进行划分。而权重的确定主要是通过专家调查表的形式,采用层次分析法建立判断矩阵,对判断矩阵的计算借助软件Yaahp 0.4.1得出各位专家的权重值,再采用算术平均法求专家组的综合结果,从而得出总体累计权重的分布。最后通过两个典型消防中队案例的量化分析,验证了该评估方法的合理性。

Based on the established Risk Evaluation Index System for Fire Fighting and Salvage Operations of Fire Brigades,quantification models applied to the evaluation method are explored.Calculating method of each evaluation index score and AHP based determination method of weights of evaluation indexes are mainly focused.The weights are got mainly by experts＇ questionnaire.By using Analytic Hierarchy Process,a judgment matrix is established,and the weight of each expert is obtained according to the calculation of the judgment matrix with the help of software Yaahp 0.4.1.Comprehensive results of the expert group are got then by arithmetic average method,thus the overall cumulative weight distribution is obtained.Finally,two fire fighting stations are used as two typical examples,and quantification analyses are carried out using the Risk Evaluation Index System.The result shows that the Risk Evaluation Index System is practical.