摘要
灾害年度风险评估是对未来一年区域灾害风险的分析与评价,目前此项工作处于起步阶段。以地震部门确定的年度地震危险区为基础,重点讨论区域地震灾害年度风险评估中的情景分析,包括地震要素情景分析、地震灾害区域情景分析和地震灾害年度风险评估情景表达等3个方面,旨在为规范地震灾害年度风险评估技术提供借鉴,同时为推动地震灾害年度风险评估的业务化提供理论支撑。
Based on the annual earthquake hazard areas,the paper focuses on the scenario analysis of regional annual earthquake disaster risk assessment from 3 aspects,including scenario analysis of seismic elements,scenario analysis of earthquake disaster areas and scenario expression of earthquake disaster.References for the specification of earthquake disaster annual risk assessment technology is provided,and meanwhile theoretical support for promoting earthquake disaster risk assessment at the operational scales is given.
出处
《灾害学》
CSCD
2015年第2期70-74,共5页
Journal of Catastrophology
基金
国家自然科学青年基金项目"灾害链型巨灾风险评估方法研究"(41201553)
国家"十二五"科技支撑计划课题"重大自然灾害应急救助关键技术与应用示范"(2013BAK05B02)
关键词
年度风险
区域灾害
风险评估
情景
地震
annual risk
regional disaster
risk assessment
scenario
earthquake
