人口年龄结构、预期寿命与居民消费率——基于省际动态面板系统GMM的检验

Population age structure, life expectancy and household consumption rate: GMM test with provincial dynamic panel data

利用中国1997—2012年的省级面板数据和动态面板GMM估计方法,考察了人口年龄结构、预期寿命对居民消费率的影响。结果发现,人口年龄结构、预期寿命对居民消费率有显著影响,但具有很大的区域性。东中西部地区比较表明:少儿抚养比对居民消费率的影响由大到小为东部、中部、西部;老年抚养比对居民消费率影响由大到小为西部、中部、东部;预期寿命对居民消费率的影响由大到小为东部、西部、中部。

By using panel data from Chinese provinces during the period 1997--2012, the study conducts a dynamic panel analysis of the impacts of population age structure and life expectancy on household consumption rate. The results show that population age structure and life expectancy have significant impacts on household consumption rate with huge regional characteristics. A comparison of eastern, central and western areas suggests that the descending order of the effect of child dependency ratio on household consumption rate is eastern, central and western areas, that the descending order of the effect of aging on household consumption rate is western, central and eastern areas, and that the descending order of the effect of expectancy on household consumption rate is eastern, western and central areas.