江苏省太湖流域用水量变化驱动因素研究

Driving factors of water use in the Taihu Lake Basin of Jiangsu

近年来,水资源短缺逐渐成为制约经济社会可持续发展的主要因素,同时经济发展、人口增加、城镇化进程加快等因素对水资源需求也形成了新的挑战。根据江苏省太湖流域2001年-2011年用水量与社会经济、科学技术、水资源禀赋等方面资料,应用加权灰色绝对关联度方法定量分析了用水总量、农业用水量、工业用水量以及生活用水量不同驱动因素的影响程度,结果表明:工业用水量变化的驱动因素中的"工业增加值占GDP比例"对用水总量影响最大,生活用水量变化驱动因素中的城镇化率次之,而农业用水量变化驱动因素中的有效灌溉面积的影响相对较小。据此,分别从工业用水、生活用水、农业用水三方面提出了控制用水量的措施,为实现区域水资源与经济社会的协调可持续发展提供依据。

In recent years,water resources shortage has become the main factor restricting the sustainable development of economy and society.Meanwhile,the factors such as economic development,population growth,and accelerated urbanization process have formed the new challenge for the water resources demand.Based on the water use data in the Taihu Lake Basin from 2001 to 2011and other information such as social economy,science and technology,and water resources endowment,the weighted grey absolute correlation degree method was used to quantitatively analyze the different driving factors for the total water use,agricultural water use,industrial water use,and domestic water use.The results showed that the industrial added value accounting for GDP,one driving factor of the industrial water use,has the most significant effects on the total water use;followed by the urbanization rate,one driving factor of the domestic water use;and the effective irrigation area,one driving factor of the agricultural water use,has the least significant effects.On the basis,the controlling water use measures were proposed from the aspects of industrial water use,domestic water use,and agricultural water use,which can provide the reference for the coordinated and sustainable development of water resources and social economy.