页岩气产业发展的影响因素

Influencing factors for the development of shale gas industry

美国页岩气开发全面进入了产业化发展阶段.作为页岩气资源蕴藏量同样极其丰富的中国,推动开发页岩气有利于改善能源结构、保障能源安全。以美国5个典型页岩气区带解剖为依据,对页岩气产业发展影响因素进行定量分析,提出了影响页岩气产业发展因素的分类方案;采用主成分分析法.分析了影响页岩气产业化各指标的影响程度;通过对比,总结了美国页岩气产业发展历程对中国页岩气产业发展的启示。结果表明:①影响页岩气产业发展的4个主要因素为资源基础、技术支持、产业政策和投入产出.由此构建了页岩气产业发展影响因素指标体系,包含11项具体指标;②对美国页岩气产业发展因素进行分析可知,埋深是最为重要的主控因素;③根据因素的重要程度和对比中美页岩气产业发展状况可知,中国要想页岩气产业化顺利发展,必须跨越地质条件复杂、单井投资高、油气开采公司数量少等3个方面的障碍。

The development of the U.S. shale gas has entered the industrialization stage in an all-round way. As China is similarly rich in shale gas reserves, promoting the development of shale gas can help improve energy structure and guarantee energy security in China. Through the analysis of the five typical shale gas zones in the United States, this paper makes a quantitative analysis of the in- fluencing factors for the development of shale gas industry and puts forward a classification scheme thereof. By using the principal component analysis （PCA）, this paper analyzes how such factors （by indexes） affect the shale gas industrialization. By contrast, this paper summarizes the enlightenment provided by the development of the U.S. shale gas industry to China. The following results were revealed. Firstly, four major factors affecting the development of shale gas industry are respectively resource base, technical support, industrial policies, and input/output, on this basis, an index system of influencing factors was built containing 11 specific indices. Secondly, burial depth is regarded as the most important main controlling factor. Thirdly, according to the importance of different factors and by comparing the shale gas industry development situations between China and the United States, it is known that to realize shale gas industrialization smoothly, China must overcome three obstacles, i.e., complex geological conditions, high investment in a single well, and a small number of oil and gas exploitation companies.