人民币境外存量、国际收支与人民币国际化进程

THE OFFSHORE STOCK OF RMB,BALANCE OF PAYMENT AND THE INTERNATIONALIZATION OF RMB

人民币国际化问题已成为各国学者研究的热点。本文依据弗里德曼货币需求函数设立国内货币需求模型,并基于间接测算法和模型稳定性检验结果,选取1992—2003年的季度数据估测2004—2014年季度人民币境外存量,以此作为人民币国际化的衡量标准。在此基础上运用协整理论、格兰杰(Granger)因果检验、脉冲分析法等时间序列处理方法对我国现有的国际收支结构、经济规模、实际汇率及人民币国际化之间的动态关系进行实证分析。本文研究发现,上述变量之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,我国经济规模扩大、经常项目顺差和人民币稳步升值有利于推动人民币国际化进程,而资本和金融项目顺差会对人民币国际化产生阻碍作用。因此,在发展国民经济及维持人民币币值坚挺的同时,合理调整我国国际收支双顺差结构也是人民币国际化进程的客观要求。

The internationalization of RMB has been the hot point of global academic circle.Based on Friedman money demand function,this paper establishes domestic money demand model.This paper uses quarterly data between 1992 and 2003to estimate RMB stock overseas from 2004 to 2014,which is chosen as criterion of the internationalization of RMB,on account of indirect measuring method and inspection results of the model＇s stability.On this basis,this paper uses time series analysis methods such as co-integration theory,Granger causality test and pulse analysis to make empirical test on dynamic relation between China＇s current structure of international payments,scale of economy,real interest rate and internationalization of RMB.The results shows that there are equilibrium relations between variables above,the enlargement of scale of economy,current account surplus and steady appreciation of RMB are helpful to promote the internationalization of RMB,while capital and financial account surplus will hinder the internationalization of RMB.Therefore,besides developing national economy and remaining firm value of RMB,rationally adjusting our nation＇s double surplus of balance of payments is the objective requirement of the process of internationalization of RMB.