产业结构升级与各级教育发展的动态关系——基于发达国家和地区的经验视角

Research on the Dynamic Relationship between the Upgrading of Industrial Structure and the Development of Education at All Levels

中国劳动力供需的变化、普通工人工资的持续上涨等将促使产业结构升级,而产业结构不断升级又必将要求提升人力资本。各级教育的发展能否适应这一要求将直接影响产业结构能否顺利升级。通过分析发达国家和地区(韩国、日本和中国台湾等)的产业结构升级与各级教育发展的关系,发现当产业结构从劳动密集型向资本密集型转变时,劳动力市场对具有初中学历劳动者的需求下降,而对具有高中学历劳动者的需求明显上升;从资本密集型向技术、知识密集型转变时,劳动力市场对具有初中或高中学历劳动者的需求下降,但对受过高等教育的劳动力需求则大幅上升。

With the change of labor demand and supply in China and the rising wages of unskilled-workers, the industrial structure will be forced to be upgraded. The upgrading of industrial structure demands to improve the labor quality. If the development of education can meet the demand, the industrial structure will be upgraded successfully. Otherwise, it will face many difficulties. By analyzing the relationship between the industrial structure upgrading and the development of education at all levels in developed countries and regions, it suggests that： during the shift of in- dustrial structure from labor-intensive to capital-intensive, the demand for labor with primary and junior secondary education is declining, but the demand for labor with senior secondary education is increasing;during the shift from capital-intensive to technology and knowledge-intensive,there is a falling demand for labor with secondary educa- tion, and there is a sharp rise in demanding for workers with higher education.