重点农业基地耕地面积变化特征及其驱动因素——以江西省吉安市为例

Area Variation Characteristics and the Driving Factors of the Cultivated Land in the Key Agricultural Base——Taking Ji'an City in Jiangxi as Case

对江西省吉安市2001—2010年期间耕地面积变化及其驱动因素进行分析,并采用重心坐标分析法与逐步回归分析法等方法计算与分析了吉安市耕地动态变化的特征及其主要的驱动因素.结果表明:1)10年间,吉安市耕地数量变化的总体趋势是先迅速下降,后缓慢上升;2)耕地年际变化率存在较大差异,区域之间耕地动态变化度和耕地利用程度也存在较大差异;3)耕地重心的变化幅度略大于人口和经济重心的变化幅度,人口、经济重心的变化趋势与耕地面积重心的变化趋势相反;4)人口数量、粮食单产和人均财政收入是影响吉安市耕地数量变化的主要社会驱动因子;影响耕地复种指数变化的社会驱动因子有人口增长率、粮食单产增长率和城镇化率增长率;影响垦殖指数变化的社会驱动因子有财政收入增长率与城镇化率增长率.研究结果可为了解吉安市及我国中部地区耕地的空间动态变化特征,制定我国重点农业生产基地的耕地资源管理政策与发展战略等提供理论依据.

In the report,the barycenter coordinates and stepwise-regression-analysis were used to calculate and analyze the characteristics and the main driving factors of cultivated land dynamic change in Ji＇an City from 2001 to 2010.The results indicated：（1） during the past 10 years,the general trend of dynamic changes of the amount of cultivated land was slowly increased,and then dropped rapidly;（2） the annual change rate of cultivated land differed greatly,and there are also big differences among the dynamic change and utilization degree of cultivated land area;（3） the degree of variability in the cultivated land gravity center is slightly bigger than that of the population and economy gravity center,the change trend of the population and economy gravity center is adverse to that of the cultivated land gravity center;（4） the population,the growth rate of crop output per unit area,and per capita revenue are the main social factors which drive the arable land＇s amount variation in Ji＇an City; the main social driving factors affecting multi-cropping index changes include fiscal revenue growth and the growth rate of urbanization.These data provides the theory basis for understanding the dynamic change characteristics of cultivated land space of Ji＇an City and central China,and formulating management policy and development strategy on cultivated land resource in the key agricultural production base in China.