江西省县域“三化”协调发展度空间格局演变及其障碍因子诊断

Evolvement of Spatial Pattern of the Coordinated Development Degree of Urbanization,Industrialization and Agricultural Modernization in Jiangxi Province at County Level and Diagnosis of Its Obstacle Factors

以县域单元为研究对象,从新型城镇化、新型工业化和农业现代化3个方面构建"三化"协调发展度评价模型,利用ESDA和GIS技术,揭示2000—2012年江西省县域"三化"协调发展度的空间格局演变过程,并采用障碍因子诊断模型找出阻碍江西省县域"三化"协调发展度提升的障碍因子。结果表明:江西省县域"三化"协调发展水平较低,提升潜力大;在总体空间格局上,江西省县域"三化"协调发展度水平具有较强的空间自相关性,相似地区集聚分布,热点区沿浙赣线和京九线(江西段)北段成带状集聚,冷点区主要向赣东南地区集聚,鄱阳湖周边地区的冷点区逐渐消失;阻碍江西省县域"三化"协调发展度提升的障碍因子主要表现为地均工业增加值、工业化率、城镇化率、人均社会固定资产投资额和人均农林牧渔业增加值5个方面,地均工业增加值历来是主要的障碍因子。

Taking the counties as research objects,this paper constructs the coordinated development degree of urbanization,industrialization and agricultural modernization（ ＂three modernizations＂） evaluation model among urbanization,industrialization and agricultural modernization. On this basis,the study uses ESDA and GIS to reveal the evolvement of spatial pattern of the coordinated development degree of ＂three modernizations＂at county level in Jiangxi Province between the year of 2000 and 2012 and identifies the factors restricting the coordinated development degree of ＂three modernizations＂by the model of obstacle degrees. The results shows that： during the study period the coordinated development degree of ＂three modernizations＂at county level in Jiangxi Province is low,and the improvement potential is large; the overall spatial coordinated development degree of ＂three modernizations＂in Jiangxi Province shows a strong trend of spatial natural correlation,the similar areas cluster in space;the distribution of hotspot is gathering to the Zhegan Railway and the north of Jingjiu Railway which is in Jiangxi Province; the distribution of coldspot is gathering to the southeast of Jiangxi,and that around Poyang Lake is disappearing; the five factors restricting the coordinated development degree of ＂three modernizations＂in Jiangxi Province mainly are ＂per ares industrial added-value＂,＂industrialization rate＂,＂urbanization rate＂,＂per capita social investment in fixed assets＂and＂per capita farming,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery added-value＂,and that,the ＂per ares industrial added-value＂is always the major factor.