熵值灰色预测法在生态环境胁迫性研究中的应用——以吉林省通榆县为例

Study on Eco-environmental Stress Based on the Method of Entropy-GM( 1∶1) ——A Case Study: Tongyu County in Jilin Province

以松嫩平原典型地区通榆县为例,在构建生态环境胁迫性评价指标体系的基础上,运用熵值-GM（1∶1）对生态环境胁迫性进行评价和预测研究。结果表明,水资源短缺、沙漠化、盐碱化、草地退化和人口增加是通榆县生态环境恶化的主要胁迫因子;1994-2013年该区生态环境胁迫系数逐年增加,胁迫程度从Ⅲ级跃升到Ⅳ级。预测结果显示,如果不采取保护生态环境的措施,胁迫系数仍会增长,胁迫程度仍会加重。针对上述情况,提出了河湖连通、水资源优化配置、防沙治碱、改良退化草地等措施,以减轻对生态环境的胁迫,促进资源、环境与社会经济的协调发展。

Taking Tongyu County as an example, based on the indicator system of eco-environmental stress, using the model ot me entropy- GM （1：1）, the eco-environmental stress was evaluated and forecasted. Results showed that the short of water resources, desertification, salin- ization, grassland degeneration and population increase are major factors of eco-environment worsen in Tongyu County; stress coefficient in 1994 to 2013 were increase year by year, the stress degree jumped from III level to IV level. The forecast result showed that, if the measures doesn＇t be taken to protect eco-environment, the coefficient still grow, the degree aggravate. In view of the above situation, this paper takes the measures to lighten eco-environment stress, promote the coordinated development of resources, environment, social and economy, such as water resources optimization distribution, prevention and control of desertification and salinization, improvement of degenerated grassland.