海上风电供给模型与发展规模预测研究

Supply Model and Development Scale Prediction of Offshore Wind Power

为预测现行电价政策下我国海上风电的发展规模,构建了供给模型:以我国沿海全部100多个海上风电规划项目为研究对象,采用Weibull模型计算项目年发电量,利用自上而下和数据拟合的研究方法构建投资模型计算项目发电成本,基于项目基准收益率的定义,首次给出了基于规划项目的我国海上风电供给曲线。根据海上风电供给曲线,考虑现行固定电价政策给定的电价水平,预测我国海上风电近期的发展规模。根据我国海上风电上网电价和当地脱硫燃煤标杆电价的差异,还计算了我国海上风电预测规模对应的年总补贴额和相应电价附加增量,并首次使用总装机容量、年总发电量、年总补贴额和电价附加增量四维坐标图度量不同上网电价条件下我国海上风电的发展规模和补贴状况。

To predict the development scale of offshore w ind pow er under current electricity price policy in China,the supply model had been built through the follow ing procedures. M ore than 100 planned offshore w ind pow er projects in coastal provinces of China w ere investigated and annual electricity generation of w hich w as calculated w ith using Weibull model. The generation cost of each project w as calculated w ith using the investment model based on top-dow n and data fitting research methods. On the basis of the definition of basic return rate of project,the supply curve of offshore w ind pow er in China based on planned projects w as issued for the first time. According to the supply curve of offshore w ind pow er,its development scale in China w as predicted,w ith considering the price level in current fixed tariff policy.According to the electricity tariff of offshore w ind pow er in China and its difference from the electricity tariff of local desulfurized coal,this paper calculated the related total annual subsidies and electricity price addition corresponding to the predicted scale of offshore w ind pow er in China,and first used four dimensional coordinate including total installed capacity,total annual generated energy,total annual subsidies and electricity price addition,to measure the development scale and subsidy situation of offshore w ind pow er in China under the condition of different electricity price.