累进性工薪所得税、失业回滞与中国劳动力市场波动——基于新凯恩斯主义动态随机一般均衡的视角

Progressive Personal Income Tax,Unemployment Hysteresis and Fluctuations of Chinese Labor Market:From the Perspective of NW-DSGE

基于包含累进性工薪所得税的新凯恩斯主义动态随机一般均衡模型,文章考察了税收的累进性对于中国劳动力市场的影响。研究发现累进性工薪所得税的引入改变了财政政策与货币政策作用于劳动力市场的机制,具体表现为累进性工薪所得税的引入使得"天赐的巧合"不复存在并且改变了新凯恩斯主义工资菲利普斯曲线的斜率;全样本贝叶斯冲击分解的结果发现中国存在显著的"失业回滞"问题,进而使得我国失业表现出较强的持续性。子样本敏感度分析表明全样本估计的结论具有相当的稳健性,并且工薪所得税的累进性具有稳定劳动力市场的"内生稳定器"功能。基于此,文章认为采用类似于"Evans规则"的对劳动力市场做出反应的货币政策机制,结合调整工薪所得税的累进性的财政政策,将有利于缓解社会就业形势、稳定劳动力市场以及降低单一货币政策引起的社会福利损失。

Based on the New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model which covers progressive personal income tax, this paper investigates the influences of progressive personal income on Chinese labor market. Studies show that the introduction of progressive personal income has brought about alterations in mechanisms of fiscal and monetary policies for the labor market. The divine coinci-dence no longer exists, and the slope of New Keynesian Wage Philips Curve is changed. Results of full sample Bayesian shock decomposition show that there is serious unemployment hysteresis in China, ac-counting for our perennial problem of unemployment. The sub-sample sensitivity analysis, which proves the validity of the above-mentioned results, has found that progressive personal income plays an active role in stabilizing the labor market. On this basis, the paper concludes that we should adopt a monetary policy mechanism similar to the Evans rule which can respond to the labor market, and make some adjustments to progressive income tax policy. These moves will help lower the unemployment rate, stabilize the labor market, and reduce welfare losses caused by the single monetary policy.