动态随机一般均衡模型的研究进展与展望

Research Progress and Prospects of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model

在过去的三十年中,动态随机一般均衡模型已经逐渐成为西方主流经济学家与世界主要发达经济体中央银行进行宏观经济运行情况的经验分析、预测与货币政策制定的重要参考工具。本文对DSGE模型的相关文献进行了研究,认为该模型理论的发展可以划分为两个重要阶段,第一阶段侧重于经济学理论上的改进,第二阶段则更强调数学方法上的更新,来提高模型的模拟与预测效果。同时,在文献研究的基础上,本文分析了该模型存在的主要的理论问题和数理计量问题以及改进的可能性,并指出了该模型的现实意义和未来理论研究的可能方向。

During the past thirty years, Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium （ DSGE） model has become an economic workhorse model for mainstream economists in western countries to analyze and forecast macroeconomic performance, as well as an important reference tool for central banks of devel-oped economies to make monetary policies. Based on a thorough study of existing literature on DSGE model, this paper concludes that DSGE model has gone through two stages of development. In the ini-tial stage, the model focuses on improving economic theories;in the second, more importance is atta-ched to updating mathematical methods to increase its accuracy in simulation and prediction. Also, the paper analyzes its theoretical and quantitative estimation issues, and the possibilities to resolve them. On this basis, the paper predicts future trends in the theoretical development of DSGE model, and its practical significance for Chinese economy.